Dangerous humid heat — a heat index of 39 °C or more — now lasts a month or more a year on 0.5% of the world's land. Under very high emissions it would by 2090 be 32.9%. These maps show where, and how much depends on the emissions path.
By Andreas Marshall · Last reviewed 31 October 2026 · Every claim is linked to its source below.
Days per year with dangerous heat (heat index ≥ 39 °C)
Period and emissions scenario 1995–2014 Recent climate2050 Intermediate emissions2090 Intermediate emissions2090 Very high emissionsDays per year:
New York City: 0 days (1995–2014), 1 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 1 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 19 days (2090, very high emissions) Los Angeles: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 1 days (2090, very high emissions) Chicago: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 1 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 14 days (2090, very high emissions) Houston: 0 days (1995–2014), 5 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 36 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 100 days (2090, very high emissions) Phoenix: 0 days (1995–2014), 14 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 27 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 65 days (2090, very high emissions) Miami: 0 days (1995–2014), 1 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 22 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 115 days (2090, very high emissions) San Francisco: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Seattle: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Washington: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 1 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 25 days (2090, very high emissions) Boston: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 1 days (2090, very high emissions) Dallas: 0 days (1995–2014), 4 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 18 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 89 days (2090, very high emissions) Atlanta: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 2 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 21 days (2090, very high emissions) Denver: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Las Vegas: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 5 days (2090, very high emissions) New Orleans: 0 days (1995–2014), 8 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 29 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 101 days (2090, very high emissions) Toronto: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 1 days (2090, very high emissions) Vancouver: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Montreal: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 4 days (2090, very high emissions) London: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Manchester: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Edinburgh: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Dublin: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Sydney: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 1 days (2090, very high emissions) Melbourne: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Brisbane: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 2 days (2090, very high emissions) Perth: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Auckland: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Paris: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Berlin: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Madrid: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Barcelona: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 8 days (2090, very high emissions) Rome: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 18 days (2090, very high emissions) Milan: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 13 days (2090, very high emissions) Amsterdam: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Brussels: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Vienna: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 1 days (2090, very high emissions) Zurich: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Lisbon: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Athens: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 6 days (2090, very high emissions) Warsaw: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Prague: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Budapest: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 3 days (2090, very high emissions) Stockholm: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Gothenburg: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Copenhagen: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Oslo: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Helsinki: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Moscow: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Istanbul: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 10 days (2090, very high emissions) Dubai: 70 days (1995–2014), 110 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 129 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 166 days (2090, very high emissions) Riyadh: 0 days (1995–2014), 1 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 4 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 69 days (2090, very high emissions) Tehran: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Cairo: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 2 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 58 days (2090, very high emissions) Lagos: 0 days (1995–2014), 8 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 72 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 226 days (2090, very high emissions) Nairobi: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Johannesburg: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Cape Town: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Mumbai: 0 days (1995–2014), 15 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 49 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 162 days (2090, very high emissions) Delhi: 26 days (1995–2014), 62 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 89 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 144 days (2090, very high emissions) Bengaluru: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 7 days (2090, very high emissions) Karachi: 6 days (1995–2014), 59 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 98 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 182 days (2090, very high emissions) Dhaka: 12 days (1995–2014), 63 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 125 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 201 days (2090, very high emissions) Tokyo: 0 days (1995–2014), 3 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 14 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 48 days (2090, very high emissions) Osaka: 0 days (1995–2014), 2 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 14 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 57 days (2090, very high emissions) Seoul: 0 days (1995–2014), 1 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 6 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 39 days (2090, very high emissions) Beijing: 0 days (1995–2014), 4 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 16 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 52 days (2090, very high emissions) Shanghai: 5 days (1995–2014), 28 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 46 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 78 days (2090, very high emissions) Hong Kong: 0 days (1995–2014), 17 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 62 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 128 days (2090, very high emissions) Singapore: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 5 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 224 days (2090, very high emissions) Bangkok: 11 days (1995–2014), 97 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 187 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 273 days (2090, very high emissions) Jakarta: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 1 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 180 days (2090, very high emissions) Manila: 0 days (1995–2014), 18 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 78 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 228 days (2090, very high emissions) Ho Chi Minh City: 0 days (1995–2014), 33 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 91 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 252 days (2090, very high emissions) Mexico City: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Sao Paulo: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Rio de Janeiro: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 2 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 36 days (2090, very high emissions) Buenos Aires: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 1 days (2090, very high emissions) Lima: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Bogota: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Santiago: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Chongqing: 4 days (1995–2014), 27 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 45 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 73 days (2090, very high emissions) Kinshasa: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 2 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 69 days (2090, very high emissions) Lahore: 43 days (1995–2014), 77 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 104 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 145 days (2090, very high emissions) Hanoi: 20 days (1995–2014), 79 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 117 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 166 days (2090, very high emissions) Taipei: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 2 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 79 days (2090, very high emissions) Baghdad: 12 days (1995–2014), 40 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 61 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 116 days (2090, very high emissions) Abidjan: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 6 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 147 days (2090, very high emissions) Dar es Salaam: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 3 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 112 days (2090, very high emissions) Saint Petersburg: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Alexandria: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 2 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 55 days (2090, very high emissions) Kano: 0 days (1995–2014), 3 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 20 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 82 days (2090, very high emissions) Peshawar: 6 days (1995–2014), 29 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 48 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 97 days (2090, very high emissions) Jeddah: 29 days (1995–2014), 115 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 150 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 215 days (2090, very high emissions) Yangon: 4 days (1995–2014), 44 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 112 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 240 days (2090, very high emissions) Kabul: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Bamako: 0 days (1995–2014), 13 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 42 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 154 days (2090, very high emissions) Chattogram: 1 days (1995–2014), 20 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 64 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 200 days (2090, very high emissions) Addis Ababa: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, very high emissions) Casablanca: 0 days (1995–2014), 0 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 0 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 2 days (2090, very high emissions) Ibadan: 0 days (1995–2014), 7 days (2050, intermediate emissions), 25 days (2090, intermediate emissions), 154 days (2090, very high emissions) 0.5% of the world's land (outside Antarctica) has 30 or more dangerous-heat days a year — 1995–2014 average.3.6% of the world's land (outside Antarctica) has 30 or more dangerous-heat days a year — 2050, intermediate emissions.11.9% of the world's land (outside Antarctica) has 30 or more dangerous-heat days a year — 2090, intermediate emissions.32.9% of the world's land (outside Antarctica) has 30 or more dangerous-heat days a year — 2090, very high emissions.
Days when the heat index (NOAA/NWS formula) reaches 39 °C or more. 1995–2014 from ERA5; 2050 = 2040–2059 and 2090 = 2080–2099, CMIP6 ensemble median. Data: Copernicus ERA5 and CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY 4.0 / CC BY-SA 4.0). Map: Natural Earth. Dots are cities; tap one for its page. Embed this chart on your site Free to use under CC BY-SA 4.0. The chart updates automatically and links back to this page.
Copy code 1995–2014
0.5%
of land with 30+ dangerous-heat days a year; 2 of 100 cities on this site.
2050 · intermediate emissions
3.6%
of land with 30+ dangerous-heat days a year; 11 of 100 cities on this site.
2090 · intermediate emissions
11.9%
of land with 30+ dangerous-heat days a year; 21 of 100 cities on this site.
2090 · very high emissions
32.9%
of land with 30+ dangerous-heat days a year; 41 of 100 cities on this site.
What "dangerous heat" means The map counts days when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined into how hot it feels — reaches 39 °C (about 103 °F). That is where the US National Weather Service's Danger category starts: with prolonged exposure or physical work, heat cramps and heat exhaustion are likely and heat stroke is possible. Above about 51 °C it becomes Extreme danger , where heat stroke is highly likely.
Humidity is why the darkest areas are not the deserts but the humid lowlands: the Gulf coast, the Indus and Ganges plains, West Africa, the Amazon and Southeast Asia. When the air is humid, sweat cannot evaporate and the body loses its main way of cooling down. Those are also some of the most densely populated places on Earth.
Heat extremes are also becoming more frequent everywhere. The IPCC finds that a hot extreme that happened once in 50 years in a climate without human influence is already about 4.8 times as frequent at today's warming, 8.6 times at 1.5 °C and 13.9 times at 2 °C (AR6 WG1, Figure SPM.6).
Where average heat passes 29 °C For thousands of years, most people have lived where the mean annual temperature is roughly 11–15 °C, according to a 2020 study in PNAS by Xu and colleagues. A mean of 29 °C or more is today found almost only in the hottest parts of the Sahara. The study estimates that, under business-as-usual emissions and without migration, about a third of the world's population could live in such conditions within 50 years.
Where the mean annual temperature is 29 °C or more
New York City: mean 12.4 °C (1995–2014), 15.3 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 17.5 °C (very high) Los Angeles: mean 17.6 °C (1995–2014), 19.9 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 21.9 °C (very high) Chicago: mean 10.5 °C (1995–2014), 13.8 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 16.3 °C (very high) Houston: mean 20.8 °C (1995–2014), 23.4 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 25.4 °C (very high) Phoenix: mean 23.3 °C (1995–2014), 25.9 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 28.4 °C (very high) Miami: mean 24.5 °C (1995–2014), 26.4 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 28.1 °C (very high) San Francisco: mean 13.1 °C (1995–2014), 15.3 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 16.9 °C (very high) Seattle: mean 11.2 °C (1995–2014), 13.8 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 16.1 °C (very high) Washington: mean 13.8 °C (1995–2014), 16.7 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 18.8 °C (very high) Boston: mean 10.5 °C (1995–2014), 13.5 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 15.7 °C (very high) Dallas: mean 19.3 °C (1995–2014), 22.0 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 24.5 °C (very high) Atlanta: mean 16.6 °C (1995–2014), 19.1 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 21.1 °C (very high) Denver: mean 9.2 °C (1995–2014), 12.0 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 14.4 °C (very high) Las Vegas: mean 18.1 °C (1995–2014), 20.8 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 23.4 °C (very high) New Orleans: mean 20.8 °C (1995–2014), 23.1 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 24.9 °C (very high) Toronto: mean 8.5 °C (1995–2014), 11.8 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 14.3 °C (very high) Vancouver: mean 9.5 °C (1995–2014), 12.1 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 14.5 °C (very high) Montreal: mean 7.2 °C (1995–2014), 10.5 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 13.3 °C (very high) London: mean 10.7 °C (1995–2014), 12.6 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 14.5 °C (very high) Manchester: mean 9.5 °C (1995–2014), 11.2 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 12.8 °C (very high) Edinburgh: mean 9.3 °C (1995–2014), 10.9 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 12.3 °C (very high) Dublin: mean 9.8 °C (1995–2014), 11.3 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 12.7 °C (very high) Sydney: mean 18.0 °C (1995–2014), 19.9 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 21.7 °C (very high) Melbourne: mean 14.3 °C (1995–2014), 16.1 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 17.9 °C (very high) Brisbane: mean 19.7 °C (1995–2014), 21.7 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 23.5 °C (very high) Perth: mean 18.7 °C (1995–2014), 20.5 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 22.3 °C (very high) Auckland: mean 15.8 °C (1995–2014), 17.4 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 19.2 °C (very high) Paris: mean 11.4 °C (1995–2014), 13.4 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 15.8 °C (very high) Berlin: mean 9.7 °C (1995–2014), 11.8 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 14.4 °C (very high) Madrid: mean 14.9 °C (1995–2014), 17.7 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 20.3 °C (very high) Barcelona: mean 15.6 °C (1995–2014), 18.1 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 20.1 °C (very high) Rome: mean 15.7 °C (1995–2014), 18.4 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 20.6 °C (very high) Milan: mean 14.1 °C (1995–2014), 16.9 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 19.1 °C (very high) Amsterdam: mean 10.4 °C (1995–2014), 12.2 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 14.0 °C (very high) Brussels: mean 10.7 °C (1995–2014), 12.6 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 14.9 °C (very high) Vienna: mean 10.3 °C (1995–2014), 12.9 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 15.3 °C (very high) Zurich: mean 10.0 °C (1995–2014), 12.4 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 14.8 °C (very high) Lisbon: mean 16.3 °C (1995–2014), 17.9 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 19.4 °C (very high) Athens: mean 17.9 °C (1995–2014), 20.2 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 22.4 °C (very high) Warsaw: mean 8.8 °C (1995–2014), 11.3 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 13.8 °C (very high) Prague: mean 9.3 °C (1995–2014), 11.6 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 14.1 °C (very high) Budapest: mean 10.8 °C (1995–2014), 13.6 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 16.0 °C (very high) Stockholm: mean 6.9 °C (1995–2014), 9.5 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 11.6 °C (very high) Gothenburg: mean 7.8 °C (1995–2014), 9.8 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 11.8 °C (very high) Copenhagen: mean 8.7 °C (1995–2014), 10.7 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 12.6 °C (very high) Oslo: mean 5.8 °C (1995–2014), 8.2 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 10.4 °C (very high) Helsinki: mean 5.8 °C (1995–2014), 8.7 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 11.2 °C (very high) Moscow: mean 5.7 °C (1995–2014), 8.6 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 11.5 °C (very high) Istanbul: mean 14.9 °C (1995–2014), 17.1 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 19.5 °C (very high) Dubai: mean 28.1 °C (1995–2014), 30.8 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 32.9 °C (very high) Riyadh: mean 26.5 °C (1995–2014), 29.5 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 32.4 °C (very high) Tehran: mean 12.3 °C (1995–2014), 15.1 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 17.8 °C (very high) Cairo: mean 22.2 °C (1995–2014), 24.6 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 27.1 °C (very high) Lagos: mean 26.7 °C (1995–2014), 28.7 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 30.3 °C (very high) Nairobi: mean 18.9 °C (1995–2014), 20.8 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 22.5 °C (very high) Johannesburg: mean 15.8 °C (1995–2014), 18.6 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 21.0 °C (very high) Cape Town: mean 16.4 °C (1995–2014), 17.9 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 19.4 °C (very high) Mumbai: mean 26.6 °C (1995–2014), 28.6 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 30.3 °C (very high) Delhi: mean 24.7 °C (1995–2014), 27.0 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 29.2 °C (very high) Bengaluru: mean 23.7 °C (1995–2014), 25.4 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 27.3 °C (very high) Karachi: mean 26.1 °C (1995–2014), 28.2 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 30.0 °C (very high) Dhaka: mean 25.6 °C (1995–2014), 27.7 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 29.6 °C (very high) Tokyo: mean 15.8 °C (1995–2014), 18.2 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 20.2 °C (very high) Osaka: mean 16.5 °C (1995–2014), 18.9 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 21.1 °C (very high) Seoul: mean 12.0 °C (1995–2014), 14.8 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 17.0 °C (very high) Beijing: mean 13.3 °C (1995–2014), 16.5 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 18.7 °C (very high) Shanghai: mean 17.1 °C (1995–2014), 19.7 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 21.8 °C (very high) Hong Kong: mean 23.2 °C (1995–2014), 25.2 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 27.0 °C (very high) Singapore: mean 27.1 °C (1995–2014), 28.9 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 30.5 °C (very high) Bangkok: mean 28.8 °C (1995–2014), 30.8 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 32.6 °C (very high) Jakarta: mean 26.9 °C (1995–2014), 28.7 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 30.2 °C (very high) Manila: mean 27.8 °C (1995–2014), 29.6 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 30.9 °C (very high) Ho Chi Minh City: mean 27.6 °C (1995–2014), 29.5 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 31.1 °C (very high) Mexico City: mean 14.7 °C (1995–2014), 17.1 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 19.6 °C (very high) Sao Paulo: mean 20.0 °C (1995–2014), 22.0 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 23.9 °C (very high) Rio de Janeiro: mean 23.8 °C (1995–2014), 25.5 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 27.0 °C (very high) Buenos Aires: mean 17.2 °C (1995–2014), 18.9 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 20.3 °C (very high) Lima: mean 19.1 °C (1995–2014), 21.6 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 23.6 °C (very high) Bogota: mean 12.9 °C (1995–2014), 15.2 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 17.4 °C (very high) Santiago: mean 15.4 °C (1995–2014), 17.6 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 19.6 °C (very high) Chongqing: mean 18.8 °C (1995–2014), 21.7 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 23.9 °C (very high) Kinshasa: mean 25.2 °C (1995–2014), 27.1 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 29.0 °C (very high) Lahore: mean 24.4 °C (1995–2014), 26.9 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 29.3 °C (very high) Hanoi: mean 24.1 °C (1995–2014), 26.5 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 28.4 °C (very high) Taipei: mean 21.2 °C (1995–2014), 23.1 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 24.7 °C (very high) Baghdad: mean 25.9 °C (1995–2014), 28.9 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 31.6 °C (very high) Abidjan: mean 26.0 °C (1995–2014), 27.9 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 29.2 °C (very high) Dar es Salaam: mean 25.9 °C (1995–2014), 27.7 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 29.4 °C (very high) Saint Petersburg: mean 5.0 °C (1995–2014), 8.0 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 10.8 °C (very high) Alexandria: mean 20.7 °C (1995–2014), 22.9 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 24.9 °C (very high) Kano: mean 26.2 °C (1995–2014), 28.4 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 30.5 °C (very high) Peshawar: mean 21.9 °C (1995–2014), 24.8 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 27.4 °C (very high) Jeddah: mean 28.4 °C (1995–2014), 30.9 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 32.9 °C (very high) Yangon: mean 27.6 °C (1995–2014), 29.6 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 31.3 °C (very high) Kabul: mean 9.9 °C (1995–2014), 13.1 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 16.1 °C (very high) Bamako: mean 27.8 °C (1995–2014), 30.3 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 32.4 °C (very high) Chattogram: mean 25.8 °C (1995–2014), 27.7 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 29.5 °C (very high) Addis Ababa: mean 15.6 °C (1995–2014), 17.8 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 19.8 °C (very high) Casablanca: mean 18.5 °C (1995–2014), 20.6 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 22.4 °C (very high) Ibadan: mean 26.0 °C (1995–2014), 28.1 °C in 2090 (intermediate), 29.7 °C (very high) Mean annual temperature of 29 °C or more. 1995–2014 from ERA5; 2090 = 2080–2099, CMIP6 ensemble median. Data: Copernicus ERA5 and CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY 4.0 / CC BY-SA 4.0). Map: Natural Earth. Dots are cities; tap one for its page. In the data behind this map, the 29 °C zone covers 1.9% of land in 1995–2014, 11% by 2090 under intermediate emissions and 26.7% under very high emissions. (Xu et al. put the present share at 0.8% using a different temperature dataset and land mask, so the two figures are not directly comparable.) Of the cities on this site, none is in the zone today; by 2090 under very high emissions it would include Dubai, Riyadh, Lagos, Mumbai, Delhi, Karachi, Dhaka, Singapore, Bangkok, Jakarta, Manila, Ho Chi Minh City, Kinshasa, Lahore, Baghdad, Abidjan, Dar es Salaam, Kano, Jeddah, Yangon, Bamako, Chattogram, Ibadan.
Dangerous heat days by city Days per year with a heat index of 39 °C or more, sorted by 2050 under intermediate emissions. Tap a city for its full climate profile.
Show the other 75 cities 2050 = 2040–2059 and 2090 = 2080–2099, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5) unless noted; very high = SSP5-8.5. Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 plus the CMIP6 ensemble median change (bias-corrected and downscaled to 0.25°, World Bank CCKP). Values are for the 25 km grid cell nearest the city centre, so they can be lower than what a weather station in the city records; urban heat islands add more. Land shares are area-weighted and exclude Antarctica. The heat index formula is only defined for temperatures of roughly 20–50 °C. See the methodology . Download the city data (CSV, CC BY-SA 4.0) .
What it means The question is less "where can we live?" than "who can keep safe in the heat?" People with air conditioning, reliable power, shade and indoor jobs can live with many dangerous days. Outdoor workers, older people, the sick and those in crowded housing without cooling cannot. The places on the map where dangerous heat grows fastest are also where many people work outdoors and fewer can afford cooling.
The difference between the two 2090 maps is the part still up to us. Current policies point to about 2.8 °C of warming by 2100 (UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025), between the intermediate and very high scenarios shown here.
Find out more: your city's climate in 2050 ,climate change before and after, seen from space , what the world will look like in 2050 and why 1.5 °C vs 2 °C matters .
Frequently asked questions Where will it be too hot to live? There is no single temperature at which a place becomes uninhabitable — it depends on humidity, housing, cooling, work and health care. What the data shows clearly is where dangerous heat becomes routine. Today about 0.5% of the world's land outside Antarctica has 30 or more days a year with a heat index of 39 °C or more. By 2081–2100 that rises to about 11.9% under intermediate emissions and 32.9% under very high emissions — mostly across the humid tropics, South Asia, the Gulf, West Africa and the Amazon.
What is a dangerous heat index? The heat index combines air temperature and humidity into how hot it feels to the body. The US National Weather Service classes 103–124 °F (about 39–51 °C) as 'Danger': heat cramps or heat exhaustion are likely and heat stroke is possible with prolonged exposure or physical activity.
Why does the Sahara show fewer dangerous days than the tropics? Because the heat index includes humidity. Dry desert heat lets sweat evaporate, so the same air temperature is less dangerous than in humid places such as the Gulf coast, the Ganges plain or the Amazon. Deserts still have extreme air temperatures — see the second map for mean annual temperature.
Which cities will have the most dangerous heat days? Of the 100 cities on this site, Jeddah, Dubai, Bangkok have the most days with a heat index of 39 °C or more by 2050 under intermediate emissions. The full table above lists every city.
Can we still avoid the worst of this? Yes. The maps for 2090 show the difference emissions make: about 11.9% of land with a month or more of dangerous heat under intermediate emissions, against 32.9% under very high emissions. Warming stops when CO₂ emissions reach net zero, and every tonne avoided reduces future heat.