Tehran in 2050: climate change in numbers
Tehran has warmed 2.3 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — faster than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Beijing, China today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 13.5–14.9 °C.
Tehran: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Tehran's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Tehran's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Tehran's 2050 climate is closest to Beijing, China — about 5,600 km away.
| Tehran today | Tehran 2050 | Beijing today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 12.1 °C | 14.2 °C | 13.3 °C |
| Average daily high | 16.5 °C | 18.7 °C | 19.1 °C |
| Hottest day | 35 °C | 38 °C | 40 °C |
| Frost days | 111 | 94 | 125 |
| Rainfall | 384 mm | 357 mm | 554 mm |
A year in Tehran, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 35 °C (95 °F) in Tehran
Tropical nights in Tehran (never cooler than 20 °C)
Frost days in Tehran (below 0 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 2.1 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 1.4–2.8 °C).
- Days above 35 °C (95 °F) rise from about 2 a year (1991–2020) to about 18 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 51 to 85 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
- Frost days fall from about 111 to 94 a year: shorter, milder winters.
Dangerous heat in Tehran
Even by 2090 under very high emissions, Tehran is not projected to have days with a heat index of 39 °C or more in a typical year. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Tehran would average 14.9 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 39 °C and 27 days above 35 °C (95 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
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Frequently asked questions
How hot will Tehran be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Tehran's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 14.2 °C (range 13.5–14.9 °C across climate models), compared with 12.1 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 38 °C (100 °F).
Is Tehran getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 2.3 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Tehran, faster than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Tehran feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Tehran's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Beijing, China today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Tehran's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 14.9 °C and the hottest day at about 39 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026