Madrid in 2050: climate change in numbers
Madrid has warmed 2.0 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — faster than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Gaziantep, Turkey today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 16.0–17.3 °C.
Madrid: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Madrid's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Madrid's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Madrid's 2050 climate is closest to Gaziantep, Turkey — about 3,600 km away.
| Madrid today | Madrid 2050 | Gaziantep today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 14.9 °C | 16.6 °C | 16.9 °C |
| Average daily high | 20.7 °C | 22.4 °C | 22.9 °C |
| Hottest day | 39 °C | 41 °C | 41 °C |
| Frost days | 32 | 24 | 31 |
| Rainfall | 429 mm | 410 mm | 475 mm |
A year in Madrid, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 35 °C (95 °F) in Madrid
Tropical nights in Madrid (never cooler than 20 °C)
Frost days in Madrid (below 0 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.7 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 1.1–2.3 °C).
- Days above 35 °C (95 °F) rise from about 20 a year (1991–2020) to about 44 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 18 to 50 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
- Frost days fall from about 32 to 24 a year: shorter, milder winters.
- Annual rainfall is projected to decrease by about 7%, though precipitation projections are less certain than temperature.
Dangerous heat in Madrid
Even by 2090 under very high emissions, Madrid is not projected to have days with a heat index of 39 °C or more in a typical year. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Madrid would average 17.2 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 42 °C and 55 days above 35 °C (95 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
Compare Madrid with…Climate change in SpainLisbonBarcelonaCasablancaParis
Frequently asked questions
How hot will Madrid be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Madrid's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 16.6 °C (range 16.0–17.3 °C across climate models), compared with 14.9 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 41 °C (105 °F).
Is Madrid getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 2.0 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Madrid, faster than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Madrid feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Madrid's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Gaziantep, Turkey today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Madrid's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 17.2 °C and the hottest day at about 42 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026