Hong Kong in 2050: climate change in numbers
Hong Kong has warmed 1.0 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — about as fast as the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Haiphong, Vietnam today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 24.1–24.9 °C.
Hong Kong: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Hong Kong's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Hong Kong's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Hong Kong's 2050 climate is closest to Haiphong, Vietnam — about 800 km away.
| Hong Kong today | Hong Kong 2050 | Haiphong today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 23.2 °C | 24.4 °C | 24.2 °C |
| Average daily high | 24.7 °C | 25.9 °C | 26.1 °C |
| Hottest day | 33 °C | 34 °C | 34 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 1,789 mm | 1,834 mm | 1,850 mm |
A year in Hong Kong, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 30 °C (86 °F) in Hong Kong
Tropical nights in Hong Kong (never cooler than 20 °C)
Dangerous-heat days in Hong Kong (heat index ≥ 39 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.2 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.9–1.7 °C).
- Days above 30 °C (86 °F) rise from about 43 a year (1991–2020) to about 91 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 232 to 253 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
Dangerous heat in Hong Kong
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 0 in 1995–2014, 17 by 2050 and 62 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 128 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Hong Kong
The sea at Hong Kong is projected to rise about 17 cm by 2050 and 49 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Hong Kong.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Hong Kong would average 24.8 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 34 °C and 109 days above 30 °C (86 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
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Frequently asked questions
How hot will Hong Kong be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Hong Kong's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 24.4 °C (range 24.1–24.9 °C across climate models), compared with 23.2 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 34 °C (93 °F).
Is Hong Kong getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.0 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Hong Kong, about as fast as the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Hong Kong feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Hong Kong's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Haiphong, Vietnam today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Hong Kong's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 24.8 °C and the hottest day at about 34 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026