Lahore in 2050: climate change in numbers
Lahore has warmed 0.4 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — slower than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Gwalior, India today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 25.3–26.6 °C.
Lahore: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Lahore's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Lahore's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Lahore's 2050 climate is closest to Gwalior, India — about 700 km away.
| Lahore today | Lahore 2050 | Gwalior today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 24.3 °C | 25.8 °C | 25.8 °C |
| Average daily high | 30.5 °C | 32.0 °C | 31.8 °C |
| Hottest day | 46 °C | 48 °C | 45 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 636 mm | 674 mm | 781 mm |
A year in Lahore, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 35 °C (95 °F) in Lahore
Tropical nights in Lahore (never cooler than 20 °C)
Dangerous-heat days in Lahore (heat index ≥ 39 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.5 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 1.1–2.3 °C).
- Days above 35 °C (95 °F) rise from about 119 a year (1991–2020) to about 146 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 179 to 195 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
- Annual rainfall is projected to increase by about 7%, though precipitation projections are less certain than temperature.
Dangerous heat in Lahore
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 43 in 1995–2014, 77 by 2050 and 104 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 145 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Lahore would average 26.4 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 48 °C and 158 days above 35 °C (95 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
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Frequently asked questions
How hot will Lahore be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Lahore's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 25.8 °C (range 25.3–26.6 °C across climate models), compared with 24.3 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 48 °C (118 °F).
Is Lahore getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 0.4 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Lahore, slower than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Lahore feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Lahore's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Gwalior, India today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Lahore's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 26.4 °C and the hottest day at about 48 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026