Los Angeles in 2050: climate change in numbers
Los Angeles has warmed 1.2 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — about as fast as the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Fes, Morocco today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 18.5–19.8 °C.
Los Angeles: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Los Angeles's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Los Angeles's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Los Angeles's 2050 climate is closest to Fes, Morocco — about 9,700 km away.
| Los Angeles today | Los Angeles 2050 | Fes today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 17.8 °C | 19.1 °C | 18.1 °C |
| Average daily high | 24.4 °C | 25.6 °C | 24.0 °C |
| Hottest day | 40 °C | 40 °C | 41 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rainfall | 363 mm | 389 mm | 549 mm |
A year in Los Angeles, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 35 °C (95 °F) in Los Angeles
Tropical nights in Los Angeles (never cooler than 20 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.3 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.7–2.0 °C).
- Days above 35 °C (95 °F) rise from about 12 a year (1991–2020) to about 18 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 16 to 43 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
- Annual rainfall is projected to increase by about 10%, though precipitation projections are less certain than temperature.
Dangerous heat in Los Angeles
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 0 in 1995–2014, 0 by 2050 and 0 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 1 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Los Angeles
The sea at Los Angeles is projected to rise about 17 cm by 2050 and 47 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Los Angeles.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Los Angeles would average 19.5 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 41 °C and 21 days above 35 °C (95 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
Compare Los Angeles with…Climate change in the United StatesLas VegasSan FranciscoPhoenixDenver
Frequently asked questions
How hot will Los Angeles be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Los Angeles's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 19.1 °C (range 18.5–19.8 °C across climate models), compared with 17.8 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 40 °C (105 °F).
Is Los Angeles getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.2 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Los Angeles, about as fast as the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Los Angeles feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Los Angeles's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Fes, Morocco today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Los Angeles's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 19.5 °C and the hottest day at about 41 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026