Helsinki in 2050: climate change in numbers
Helsinki has warmed 2.2 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — faster than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Minsk, Belarus today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 6.8–9.2 °C.
Helsinki: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Helsinki's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Helsinki's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Helsinki's 2050 climate is closest to Minsk, Belarus — about 700 km away.
| Helsinki today | Helsinki 2050 | Minsk today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 5.9 °C | 7.7 °C | 6.6 °C |
| Average daily high | 8.9 °C | 10.7 °C | 10.1 °C |
| Hottest day | 28 °C | 31 °C | 31 °C |
| Frost days | 137 | 110 | 137 |
| Rainfall | 737 mm | 764 mm | 744 mm |
A year in Helsinki, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 30 °C (86 °F) in Helsinki
Frost days in Helsinki (below 0 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.8 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.8–3.3 °C).
- Days above 30 °C (86 °F) stay relatively rare: about 0 a year today and 1 by 2040–2059.
- Frost days fall from about 137 to 110 a year: shorter, milder winters.
Dangerous heat in Helsinki
Even by 2090 under very high emissions, Helsinki is not projected to have days with a heat index of 39 °C or more in a typical year. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Helsinki
The sea at Helsinki is projected to rise about 9 cm by 2050 and 24 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Helsinki.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Helsinki would average 8.3 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 31 °C and 2 days above 30 °C (86 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
Compare Helsinki with…Climate change in FinlandSaint PetersburgStockholmOsloGothenburg
Frequently asked questions
How hot will Helsinki be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Helsinki's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 7.7 °C (range 6.8–9.2 °C across climate models), compared with 5.9 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 31 °C (87 °F).
Is Helsinki getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 2.2 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Helsinki, faster than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Helsinki feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Helsinki's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Minsk, Belarus today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Helsinki's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 8.3 °C and the hottest day at about 31 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026