Johannesburg in 2050: climate change in numbers
Johannesburg has warmed 1.4 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — faster than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Santiago de Querétaro, Mexico today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 16.8–18.4 °C.
Johannesburg: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Johannesburg's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Johannesburg's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Johannesburg's 2050 climate is closest to Santiago de Querétaro, Mexico — about 14,700 km away.
| Johannesburg today | Johannesburg 2050 | Santiago de Querétaro today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 16.1 °C | 17.6 °C | 18.2 °C |
| Average daily high | 22.9 °C | 24.5 °C | 26.1 °C |
| Hottest day | 32 °C | 34 °C | 34 °C |
| Frost days | 8 | 4 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 791 mm | 803 mm | 687 mm |
A year in Johannesburg, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 30 °C (86 °F) in Johannesburg
Tropical nights in Johannesburg (never cooler than 20 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.5 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.8–2.3 °C).
- Days above 30 °C (86 °F) rise from about 12 a year (1991–2020) to about 37 by 2040–2059.
Dangerous heat in Johannesburg
Even by 2090 under very high emissions, Johannesburg is not projected to have days with a heat index of 39 °C or more in a typical year. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Johannesburg would average 18.0 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 35 °C and 48 days above 30 °C (86 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
Compare Johannesburg with…Climate change in South AfricaCape TownDar es SalaamKinshasaNairobi
Frequently asked questions
How hot will Johannesburg be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Johannesburg's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 17.6 °C (range 16.8–18.4 °C across climate models), compared with 16.1 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 34 °C (93 °F).
Is Johannesburg getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.4 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Johannesburg, faster than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Johannesburg feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Johannesburg's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Santiago de Querétaro, Mexico today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Johannesburg's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 18.0 °C and the hottest day at about 35 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026