Rio de Janeiro in 2050: climate change in numbers
Rio de Janeiro has warmed 0.9 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — about as fast as the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Zhanjiang, China today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 24.6–25.2 °C.
Rio de Janeiro: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Rio de Janeiro's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Rio de Janeiro's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Rio de Janeiro's 2050 climate is closest to Zhanjiang, China — about 17,300 km away.
| Rio de Janeiro today | Rio de Janeiro 2050 | Zhanjiang today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 23.9 °C | 24.8 °C | 24.1 °C |
| Average daily high | 27.1 °C | 28.0 °C | 26.9 °C |
| Hottest day | 35 °C | 36 °C | 36 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 1,260 mm | 1,291 mm | 1,526 mm |
A year in Rio de Janeiro, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 30 °C (86 °F) in Rio de Janeiro
Tropical nights in Rio de Janeiro (never cooler than 20 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 0.9 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.7–1.4 °C).
- Days above 30 °C (86 °F) rise from about 74 a year (1991–2020) to about 109 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 238 to 283 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
Dangerous heat in Rio de Janeiro
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 0 in 1995–2014, 0 by 2050 and 2 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 36 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Rio de Janeiro
The sea at Rio de Janeiro is projected to rise about 21 cm by 2050 and 57 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Rio de Janeiro.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Rio de Janeiro would average 25.2 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 37 °C and 128 days above 30 °C (86 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
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Frequently asked questions
How hot will Rio de Janeiro be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Rio de Janeiro's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 24.8 °C (range 24.6–25.2 °C across climate models), compared with 23.9 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 36 °C (97 °F).
Is Rio de Janeiro getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 0.9 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Rio de Janeiro, about as fast as the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Rio de Janeiro feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Rio de Janeiro's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Zhanjiang, China today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Rio de Janeiro's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 25.2 °C and the hottest day at about 37 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026