Karachi in 2050: climate change in numbers
Karachi has warmed 0.8 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — slower than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, it is heading for a climate that no large city has today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 27.1–27.9 °C.
Karachi: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Karachi's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Karachi's climate will feel like
We compared Karachi's projected 2050 climate with today's climate in more than 1,000 large cities. None is a close match; the nearest is Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Scientists call this a novel climate: conditions the city's people, buildings and infrastructure have no local experience of.
| Karachi today | Karachi 2050 | Jeddah today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 26.2 °C | 27.4 °C | 28.5 °C |
| Average daily high | 29.0 °C | 30.2 °C | 31.6 °C |
| Hottest day | 36 °C | 38 °C | 39 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 156 mm | 188 mm | 84 mm |
A year in Karachi, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 35 °C (95 °F) in Karachi
Tropical nights in Karachi (never cooler than 20 °C)
Dangerous-heat days in Karachi (heat index ≥ 39 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.2 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 1.0–1.7 °C).
- Days above 35 °C (95 °F) stay relatively rare: about 4 a year today and 8 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 274 to 301 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
- Annual rainfall is projected to increase by about 36%, though precipitation projections are less certain than temperature.
Dangerous heat in Karachi
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 6 in 1995–2014, 59 by 2050 and 98 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 182 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Karachi
The sea at Karachi is projected to rise about 19 cm by 2050 and 48 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Karachi.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Karachi would average 27.8 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 38 °C and 12 days above 35 °C (95 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
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Frequently asked questions
How hot will Karachi be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Karachi's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 27.4 °C (range 27.1–27.9 °C across climate models), compared with 26.2 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 38 °C (100 °F).
Is Karachi getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 0.8 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Karachi, slower than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Karachi feel like in 2050?
No large city today has a climate quite like Karachi's projected 2050 climate. The closest match is Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, but the fit is loose — Karachi is heading into a climate with no close equivalent among the world's large cities.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Karachi's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 27.8 °C and the hottest day at about 38 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026