Abidjan in 2050: climate change in numbers
Abidjan has warmed 0.9 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — slower than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Barranquilla, Colombia today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 26.8–27.7 °C.
Abidjan: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Abidjan's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Abidjan's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Abidjan's 2050 climate is closest to Barranquilla, Colombia — about 7,800 km away.
| Abidjan today | Abidjan 2050 | Barranquilla today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 26.0 °C | 27.1 °C | 27.1 °C |
| Average daily high | 27.0 °C | 28.0 °C | 28.4 °C |
| Hottest day | 29 °C | 31 °C | 31 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 1,446 mm | 1,411 mm | 1,406 mm |
A year in Abidjan, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 30 °C (86 °F) in Abidjan
Tropical nights in Abidjan (never cooler than 20 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.1 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.7–1.7 °C).
- Days above 30 °C (86 °F) rise from about 0 a year (1991–2020) to about 25 by 2040–2059.
- Every night is already a tropical night (above 20 °C), so night-time heat stress rises with no cool season to recover in.
Dangerous heat in Abidjan
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 0 in 1995–2014, 0 by 2050 and 6 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 147 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Abidjan
The sea at Abidjan is projected to rise about 23 cm by 2050 and 60 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Abidjan.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Abidjan would average 27.4 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 31 °C and 44 days above 30 °C (86 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
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Frequently asked questions
How hot will Abidjan be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Abidjan's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 27.1 °C (range 26.8–27.7 °C across climate models), compared with 26.0 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 31 °C (88 °F).
Is Abidjan getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 0.9 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Abidjan, slower than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Abidjan feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Abidjan's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Barranquilla, Colombia today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Abidjan's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 27.4 °C and the hottest day at about 31 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026