Osaka in 2050: climate change in numbers
Osaka has warmed 1.9 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — faster than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Nanchong, China today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 17.4–18.6 °C.
Osaka: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Osaka's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Osaka's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Osaka's 2050 climate is closest to Nanchong, China — about 2,800 km away.
| Osaka today | Osaka 2050 | Nanchong today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 16.6 °C | 18.1 °C | 18.1 °C |
| Average daily high | 20.5 °C | 22.1 °C | 21.4 °C |
| Hottest day | 36 °C | 38 °C | 38 °C |
| Frost days | 11 | 3 | 2 |
| Rainfall | 1,481 mm | 1,466 mm | 1,296 mm |
A year in Osaka, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 35 °C (95 °F) in Osaka
Tropical nights in Osaka (never cooler than 20 °C)
Dangerous-heat days in Osaka (heat index ≥ 39 °C)
Frost days in Osaka (below 0 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.5 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.8–2.0 °C).
- Days above 35 °C (95 °F) rise from about 8 a year (1991–2020) to about 15 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 100 to 117 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
- Frost days fall from about 11 to 3 a year: shorter, milder winters.
Dangerous heat in Osaka
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 0 in 1995–2014, 2 by 2050 and 14 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 57 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Osaka
The sea at Osaka is projected to rise about 37 cm by 2050 and 90 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Osaka.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Osaka would average 18.5 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 38 °C and 20 days above 35 °C (95 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
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Frequently asked questions
How hot will Osaka be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Osaka's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 18.1 °C (range 17.4–18.6 °C across climate models), compared with 16.6 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 38 °C (100 °F).
Is Osaka getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.9 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Osaka, faster than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Osaka feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Osaka's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Nanchong, China today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Osaka's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 18.5 °C and the hottest day at about 38 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026