Shanghai in 2050: climate change in numbers
Shanghai has warmed 2.0 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — faster than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Wuhan, China today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 18.1–19.5 °C.
Shanghai: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Shanghai's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Shanghai's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Shanghai's 2050 climate is closest to Wuhan, China — about 700 km away.
| Shanghai today | Shanghai 2050 | Wuhan today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 17.1 °C | 18.7 °C | 17.9 °C |
| Average daily high | 20.3 °C | 21.9 °C | 21.3 °C |
| Hottest day | 37 °C | 38 °C | 38 °C |
| Frost days | 16 | 9 | 17 |
| Rainfall | 1,341 mm | 1,370 mm | 1,509 mm |
A year in Shanghai, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 35 °C (95 °F) in Shanghai
Tropical nights in Shanghai (never cooler than 20 °C)
Dangerous-heat days in Shanghai (heat index ≥ 39 °C)
Frost days in Shanghai (below 0 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.6 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 1.0–2.3 °C).
- Days above 35 °C (95 °F) rise from about 6 a year (1991–2020) to about 12 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 124 to 145 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
- Frost days fall from about 16 to 9 a year: shorter, milder winters.
- Annual rainfall is projected to increase by about 6%, though precipitation projections are less certain than temperature.
Dangerous heat in Shanghai
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 5 in 1995–2014, 28 by 2050 and 46 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 78 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Shanghai
The sea at Shanghai is projected to rise about 20 cm by 2050 and 54 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Shanghai.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Shanghai would average 19.2 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 39 °C and 17 days above 35 °C (95 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
Compare Shanghai with…Climate change in ChinaTaipeiSeoulBeijingHong Kong
Frequently asked questions
How hot will Shanghai be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Shanghai's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 18.7 °C (range 18.1–19.5 °C across climate models), compared with 17.1 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 38 °C (101 °F).
Is Shanghai getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 2.0 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Shanghai, faster than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Shanghai feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Shanghai's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Wuhan, China today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Shanghai's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 19.2 °C and the hottest day at about 39 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026