Sao Paulo in 2050: climate change in numbers
Sao Paulo has warmed 1.1 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — about as fast as the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Porto Alegre, Brazil today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 20.9–21.7 °C.
Sao Paulo: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Sao Paulo's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Sao Paulo's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Sao Paulo's 2050 climate is closest to Porto Alegre, Brazil — about 900 km away.
| Sao Paulo today | Sao Paulo 2050 | Porto Alegre today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 20.1 °C | 21.2 °C | 19.8 °C |
| Average daily high | 25.2 °C | 26.4 °C | 24.8 °C |
| Hottest day | 34 °C | 36 °C | 37 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 1,355 mm | 1,368 mm | 1,568 mm |
A year in Sao Paulo, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 30 °C (86 °F) in Sao Paulo
Tropical nights in Sao Paulo (never cooler than 20 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.1 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.9–1.7 °C).
- Days above 30 °C (86 °F) rise from about 36 a year (1991–2020) to about 63 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 42 to 90 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
Dangerous heat in Sao Paulo
Even by 2090 under very high emissions, Sao Paulo is not projected to have days with a heat index of 39 °C or more in a typical year. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Sao Paulo would average 21.6 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 36 °C and 71 days above 30 °C (86 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
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Frequently asked questions
How hot will Sao Paulo be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Sao Paulo's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 21.2 °C (range 20.9–21.7 °C across climate models), compared with 20.1 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 36 °C (97 °F).
Is Sao Paulo getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.1 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Sao Paulo, about as fast as the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Sao Paulo feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Sao Paulo's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Porto Alegre, Brazil today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Sao Paulo's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 21.6 °C and the hottest day at about 36 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026