New York City in 2050: climate change in numbers
New York City has warmed 1.6 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — faster than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Yancheng, China today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 13.7–14.8 °C.
New York City: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. New York City's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What New York City's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, New York City's 2050 climate is closest to Yancheng, China — about 11,700 km away.
| New York City today | New York City 2050 | Yancheng today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 12.5 °C | 14.4 °C | 15.5 °C |
| Average daily high | 16.4 °C | 18.2 °C | 19.8 °C |
| Hottest day | 35 °C | 37 °C | 37 °C |
| Frost days | 67 | 48 | 54 |
| Rainfall | 1,145 mm | 1,202 mm | 1,141 mm |
A year in New York City, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 30 °C (86 °F) in New York City
Tropical nights in New York City (never cooler than 20 °C)
Dangerous-heat days in New York City (heat index ≥ 39 °C)
Frost days in New York City (below 0 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.8 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 1.2–2.2 °C).
- Days above 30 °C (86 °F) rise from about 22 a year (1991–2020) to about 48 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 63 to 85 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
- Frost days fall from about 67 to 48 a year: shorter, milder winters.
- Annual rainfall is projected to increase by about 6%, though precipitation projections are less certain than temperature.
Dangerous heat in New York City
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 0 in 1995–2014, 1 by 2050 and 1 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 19 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at New York City
The sea at New York City is projected to rise about 36 cm by 2050 and 81 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for New York City.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), New York City would average 14.9 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 38 °C and 56 days above 30 °C (86 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
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Frequently asked questions
How hot will New York City be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), New York City's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 14.4 °C (range 13.7–14.8 °C across climate models), compared with 12.5 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 37 °C (99 °F).
Is New York City getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.6 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in New York City, faster than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will New York City feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, New York City's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Yancheng, China today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), New York City's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 14.9 °C and the hottest day at about 38 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026