Ho Chi Minh City in 2050: climate change in numbers
Ho Chi Minh City has warmed 1.2 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — about as fast as the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Budta, Philippines today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 28.2–29.2 °C.
Ho Chi Minh City: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Ho Chi Minh City's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Ho Chi Minh City's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Ho Chi Minh City's 2050 climate is closest to Budta, Philippines — about 2,000 km away.
| Ho Chi Minh City today | Ho Chi Minh City 2050 | Budta today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 27.6 °C | 28.7 °C | 28.1 °C |
| Average daily high | 31.8 °C | 32.9 °C | 32.7 °C |
| Hottest day | 37 °C | 38 °C | 38 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 1,911 mm | 2,057 mm | 2,031 mm |
A year in Ho Chi Minh City, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 35 °C (95 °F) in Ho Chi Minh City
Tropical nights in Ho Chi Minh City (never cooler than 20 °C)
Dangerous-heat days in Ho Chi Minh City (heat index ≥ 39 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.1 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.6–1.6 °C).
- Days above 35 °C (95 °F) rise from about 15 a year (1991–2020) to about 47 by 2040–2059.
- Every night is already a tropical night (above 20 °C), so night-time heat stress rises with no cool season to recover in.
Dangerous heat in Ho Chi Minh City
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 0 in 1995–2014, 33 by 2050 and 91 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 252 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Ho Chi Minh City
The sea at Ho Chi Minh City is projected to rise about 19 cm by 2050 and 55 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Ho Chi Minh City.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Ho Chi Minh City would average 29.1 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 38 °C and 67 days above 35 °C (95 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
Compare Ho Chi Minh City with…Climate change in VietnamBangkokSingaporeHanoiYangon
Frequently asked questions
How hot will Ho Chi Minh City be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Ho Chi Minh City's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 28.7 °C (range 28.2–29.2 °C across climate models), compared with 27.6 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 38 °C (100 °F).
Is Ho Chi Minh City getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.2 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Ho Chi Minh City, about as fast as the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Ho Chi Minh City feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Ho Chi Minh City's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Budta, Philippines today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Ho Chi Minh City's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 29.1 °C and the hottest day at about 38 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026