Casablanca in 2050: climate change in numbers
Casablanca has warmed 1.2 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — about as fast as the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Los Angeles, United States today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 19.4–20.3 °C.
Casablanca: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Casablanca's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Casablanca's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Casablanca's 2050 climate is closest to Los Angeles, United States — about 9,600 km away.
| Casablanca today | Casablanca 2050 | Los Angeles today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 18.4 °C | 19.8 °C | 17.8 °C |
| Average daily high | 23.1 °C | 24.5 °C | 24.4 °C |
| Hottest day | 38 °C | 40 °C | 40 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 328 mm | 322 mm | 363 mm |
A year in Casablanca, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 35 °C (95 °F) in Casablanca
Tropical nights in Casablanca (never cooler than 20 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.4 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 1.0–1.9 °C).
- Days above 35 °C (95 °F) stay relatively rare: about 4 a year today and 6 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 37 to 75 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
- Annual rainfall is projected to decrease by about 9%, though precipitation projections are less certain than temperature.
Dangerous heat in Casablanca
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 0 in 1995–2014, 0 by 2050 and 0 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 2 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Casablanca
The sea at Casablanca is projected to rise about 23 cm by 2050 and 58 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Casablanca.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Casablanca would average 20.2 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 40 °C and 7 days above 35 °C (95 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
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Frequently asked questions
How hot will Casablanca be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Casablanca's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 19.8 °C (range 19.4–20.3 °C across climate models), compared with 18.4 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 40 °C (104 °F).
Is Casablanca getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.2 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Casablanca, about as fast as the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Casablanca feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Casablanca's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Los Angeles, United States today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Casablanca's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 20.2 °C and the hottest day at about 40 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026