Sea level rise in Melbourne: how high will the water get?
Under intermediate emissions, sea level at Melbourne is projected to rise about 17 cm by 2050 and 49 cm by 2100 compared with 1995–2014 — or 67 cm if emissions stay very high. That is close to the global average rise of 56 cm. There is no tide gauge close to Melbourne in the IPCC dataset, so this uses the nearest regional grid point, which does not capture local land subsidence; where the ground is sinking fast, the real rise will be higher.
Projected sea level rise at Melbourne, 2020–2150 (cm vs 1995–2014)
| Year | Low | Intermediate | Very high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | +8 cm (4–12) | +8 cm (5–12) | +8 cm (5–12) |
| 2050 | +16 cm (10–23) | +17 cm (12–24) | +20 cm (14–27) |
| 2070 | +25 cm (17–36) | +28 cm (20–40) | +35 cm (25–48) |
| 2100 | +38 cm (24–58) | +49 cm (34–71) | +67 cm (50–94) |
| 2150 | +62 cm (35–97) | +83 cm (53–124) | +119 cm (79–176) |
What it means for Melbourne
The average rise is only part of the story. What people notice first is flooding: higher seas let ordinary high tides and storm surges reach further inland. The IPCC projects that extreme sea levels which used to occur once a century will happen at least once a year at more than half of the world's tide gauge locations by 2100.
Sea level will keep rising for centuries even after emissions stop, because the deep ocean keeps warming and ice sheets keep melting. Under very high emissions, rises well beyond these ranges cannot be ruled out if parts of the Antarctic ice sheet become unstable — see tipping points.
To see which streets are at risk, use a local flood map: the projections here can be explored station by station in the NASA Sea Level Projection Tool.
Melbourne climate in 2050Global sea level todayAll coastal cities
Frequently asked questions
Will Melbourne be underwater?
Not in the sense of the whole city disappearing this century, but the sea at Melbourne is projected to rise about 49 cm by 2100 under intermediate emissions (likely range 34–71 cm), and about 67 cm under very high emissions. Low-lying districts face more frequent flooding from high tides and storm surges well before then; whether a specific street floods depends on local elevation and flood defences.
How much will sea level rise in Melbourne by 2050?
About 17 cm (7 inches) compared with 1995–2014 under an intermediate scenario, with a likely range of 12–24 cm. Up to 2050 the emissions scenarios give similar results, because much of this rise is already locked in.
Why is sea level rise in Melbourne different from the global average?
Projections at a single coast include vertical land motion (sinking or rising land), changes in ocean currents and the gravitational effects of melting ice sheets. That is close to the global average rise of 56 cm.
Source: IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections (Garner et al. 2021; Fox-Kemper et al. 2021), via the NASA Sea Level Projection Tool. Global averages: IPCC AR6 WG1 Table 9.9.
Licence: CC BY 4.0. Relative sea level change incl. vertical land motion, vs 1995–2014, medium confidence; likely range = 17th–83rd percentile.